A running log of the trades, ideas, and inflection points from Jan 2024 to now. Wins and drawdowns both — the whole thing only makes sense together.
Rebuilt the book with 65% BTC / 20% ETH / 15% cash. The thesis was simple: the halving is priced by the halving. Everyone knew, and that's exactly why the pre-move mattered more than the post.
Recognized the coiling wasn't the launch it looked like. Trimmed 30% of BTC exposure, rotated into cash and short-dated stables. Ate a 4-week regret before the actual move confirmed the trim was right.
Held into the vol event. Book down 22% peak-to-trough over 6 sessions. Didn't add, didn't puke. Kept the theses, cut the two positions that weren't earning conviction. Wrote the postmortem before I got the money back.
Sized in at $22 average, out at avg $185 across a 6-tranche exit schedule. On-chain metrics were leading the price by 2-3 weeks — that gap is the whole edge. Wrote three research pieces along the way; kept me honest.
Enough data points to say what actually works. Wrote the rules doc, retired three setups I'd been loyal to for no reason, added position sizing based on volatility bucket. The strategy page is what came out of this.
The blowoff phase never rewards the same names twice. Cut BTC to 30%, rotated into three thematic baskets — AI infra, L2 scaling, on-chain finance. Documented the theses in the research letters.
Trimmed too early on the AI-infra basket. Left ~40% of the eventual move on the table. Not the worst mistake — leaving a good trade is cheaper than staying in a bad one — but the sizing rule got tightened either way.
Not the phase for new sizing. Book is 45% cash-equivalent, 30% crypto majors, 25% conviction alts. The wins are documented; the discipline now is not giving them back.