Written so I can hold myself to it, and so anyone reading the trades has the frame that produced them. If a decision breaks a rule, the rule wins.
These are the ones I've paid tuition for. Everything else is discretion.
Position size is a function of the instrument's realized vol, not how strongly I feel about the idea. Conviction only earns you into the book — it doesn't earn you weight.
The strongest thesis in the softest sizing beats the weakest thesis in the loudest.
Before the fill, I write the price or event that says the thesis is broken. If I can't articulate it, I don't take the trade. When it hits, I exit — no negotiations with myself.
An unwritten stop is a hope.
Full-position exits are decisions made in the worst possible mental state. Pre-defined tranches — 25% at 2x risk, 25% at 4x, ride the rest — remove the tax my brain would otherwise charge.
Selling correctly is a scheduled event, not a moment.
Once the book is down more than 12% peak-to-trough, no new sizing until back within 5% of the peak. Averaging into losers during a regime shift is how good years become bad ones.
Drawdowns end when I stop trading — not when the market stops moving.
Pre-trade note. Weekly review. Post-mortem when it closes. If it doesn't survive being written down, it doesn't survive being held. The research page is the byproduct.
Writing is thinking; thinking is edge.
Max 3 correlated names in the book at once. If BTC / ETH / SOL / L2s are all one bet, book two of them, not four. Diversification isn't a number — it's whether things move together on a bad day.
Correlation is one, right before it matters.
Active addresses, stablecoin flows, DEX volumes leading price by 2+ weeks. This is where the SOL trade came from. Highest expectancy setup in the book.
Wait for the flush, wait for the reclaim, wait for the higher-low. Three confirmations. Low win rate, high R:R — asymmetric by design.
When one theme obviously outruns its cohort, rotate 20-30% of the winner into the laggards of the same theme. Reversion inside a strong tape.
Not directional bets — insurance against the tails I can name. Kept small, expected to lose money, taken because the 22% drawdown was avoidable.
Cycles have taught me that 3× confidence is 10× regret. Cash-secured or lightly levered only.
If the thesis is "line goes up because attention," I want the flows to prove it. No screenshots, no vibes.
I take the middle 60% of moves. Missing the last 20% at either end is the tuition for sleeping at night.